Probabilistic Stability Analysis of a Geosynthetic-Reinforced Soil Wall Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 M.Sc. Student of Geotechnics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, I. R. Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, I. R. Iran.

3 Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, I. R. Iran.

Abstract

Geosynthetic-reinforced soil walls, due to advantages such as ease of construction, cost-effectiveness, and favorable performance, are widely used in civil engineering projects. However, the presence of uncertainties in the strength parameters of the soil and reinforcing materials poses a significant challenge in the analysis and design of these structures. The present study, aimed at improving the accuracy of safety and performance assessment of reinforced soil walls, employs a probabilistic approach using the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) combined with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Input parameters (such as dry unit weight, friction angle, and cohesion) were considered as random variables, and their influence on the factor of safety was evaluated. Results indicate that increasing the soil internal friction angle from 19° to 29° raised the factor of safety from 0.8 to 1.1, while reducing the probability of failure from about 0.05 to 0.0005. A geosynthetic length-to-wall height ratio (L/H) greater than 0.8 and geosynthetic layer spacing of less than 0.6 m also improved stability (probability of failure decreased from 0.0007 to 0.001). In contrast, increasing the soil unit weight of abutment up to 22 kN/m³ resulted in a reduction of the factor of safety. Comparison of the study results with code-based criteria (FS = 1.5) revealed that, in cases such as an internal friction angle of 29° and L/H = 1, the obtained factor of safety was about 15% higher than the reference code value, whereas in conditions such as increasing the backfill unit weight to 22 kN/m³, it was about 20% lower than the code requirement. Therefore, adopting probabilistic analysis can provide a more realistic and accurate estimation of uncertainty compared to deterministic code-based design.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Bathurst, R. J. and Naftchali, F. M. 2021. “Geosynthetic reinforcement stiffness for analytical and numerical modelling of reinforced soil structures”. Geotext. Geomembranes, 49(4): 921-940.
Cho, S. E. 2010. “Probabilistic assessment of slope stability that considers the spatial variability of soil properties”. J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 136(7): 975-984.
Desai, C. S. 2023. “DSC/HISS Modeling Applications for Problems in Mechanics, Geomechanics, and Structural Mechanics”. CRC Press. 313 p.
Duncan, J. M., Wright, S. G. and Brandon, T. L. 2014. “Soil Strength and Slope Stability”. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Fattahi, H. and Jeyriyae Sharahi, F. 2022. “Probabilistic analysis of the stability of a dam using the Monte Carlo simulation method based on the limit equilibrium method”. Eng. Geol., 15(1): 89-103. [In Persian]
Elias, V., Christopher, B. R., Berg, R. R. and Ryan, R. B. 2001. “Mechanically stabilized earth walls and reinforced soil slopes: Design and construction guidelines”. Updated version, No. FHWA-NHI-00-043, Federal Highway Administration, United States.
Haddad, A. and Shafabakhsh, G. 2008. “Failure of segmental retaining walls due to the insufficiency of backfill permeability”. In Geosynthetics in Civil and Environmental Engineering: Geosynthetics Asia 2008, Proceedings of the 4th Asian Regional Conference on Geosynthetics in Shanghai, China (pp. 852-856). Springer, Berlin Heidelberg.
Kalateh, F. and Kheiri, N. 2022. “Probabilistic seepage analysis in an earth dam using the Monte Carlo method with an emphasis on material permeability and dam geometry”. Irrig. Drain. Struct. Eng. Res., 23(86): 162-133. [In Persian]
Koerner, R. M. and Koerner, G. R. 2018. “An extended database and recommendations regarding 320 failed geosynthetic reinforced mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) walls”. Geotext. Geomembranes, 46(6): 904-912.
Kolathayar, S., Vinod Chandra Menon, N. and Sreekeshava, K. S. 2024. “Best Practices in Geotechnical and Pavement Engineering”. Springer Nature, Singapore, Pte Ltd.
Li, P. Y., Dou, H. Q. and Nie, W. F. 2024. “Stability analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced slopes considering multiple potential failure mechanisms based on the upper bound theorem”. Int. J. Geomech., 24(2): 04023286.
Low, B. K. 2005. “Reliability-based design applied to retaining walls”. Geotech., 55(1): 63-75.
Malkawi, A. I. H., Hassan, W. F. and Abdulla, F. A. 2000. “Uncertainty and reliability analysis applied to slope stability”. Struct. Safety, 22(2): 161-187.
Nunes, G. B., Portelinha, F. H. M., Futai, M. M. and Yoo, C. 2022. “Numerical study of the impact of climate conditions on stability of geocomposite and geogrid reinforced soil walls”. Geotext. Geomembranes, 50(4): 807-824.
Schweiger, H. F. and Thurner, R. 2007. “Basic concepts and applications of point estimate methods in geotechnical engineering”. In Probabilistic methods in geotechnical engineering (pp. 97-112). Vienna: Springer Vienna.
Wang, L., Powers, M. and Gong, W. 2017. “Reliability analysis of geosynthetic reinforced soil walls”. In Geo-Risk (pp. 91-100).
Xiao, C., Gao, S., Liu, H. and Du, Y. 2021. “Case history on failure of geosynthetics-reinforced soil bridge approach retaining walls”. Geotext. Geomembranes, 49(6): 1585-1599.
Journal of Transportation Infrastructure Engineering
Volume 11, Issue 3 - Serial Number 43
In Progress
November 2025
Pages 71-89

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 21 August 2025
  • Revise Date: 15 October 2025
  • Accept Date: 17 October 2025

Share

How to cite

Statistics